The question, he suggested, is not whether owners can will the median back to the sub-20-day trough of 2022, but how they adjust pricing and operations to compete in a world where 41 days is the new reference point.
Pricing discipline in a soft market
Gray’s first concern is what happens when operators respond mechanically to the longer list-to-lease timeline by cutting asking rents or layering on concessions across the board. In his view, a 41-day median tells owners more about the overall balance of supply and demand than about the optimal rent for any one unit.
Instead, he argued for more granular pricing work: scrutinizing renewal spreads versus new-lease pricing, segmenting by unit type and building vintage and watching the progression of days-on-market at the asset level rather than the portfolio average.
If a particular stack of one-bedrooms is consistently crossing the 30-day mark without serious inquiries, Gray suggested, that is a candidate for algorithmic repricing or targeted concessions, while better-performing units can hold the line.
The shift in seasonality complicates the exercise. Gray and Haddad noted that in the last three years, the leasing season has begun earlier and peaked in March, rather than the traditional June or July apex. That means mispricing in February can cost an owner the only real opportunity for rent growth all year, particularly if new supply in the submarket is scheduled to deliver through the summer.
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Unit-ready standards under pressure
If slower absorption is the macro backdrop, the micro battle is fought inside vacant units. Gray pointed to the number of days a unit sits vacant before it is truly ready to show as an underappreciated driver of the 41-day national figure.
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