Vacancy declined across most major markets.

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Apartment Vacancy Drops as Demand Absorbs Construction Wave

Apartment demand accelerated during the second quarter, pushing national vacancy lower as household formation strengthened and renters faced renewed obstacles to homeownership.

Nearly 190,000 households were formed during the quarter, more than in the previous two quarters combined, according toMarcus & Millichap. Although that total remained below the 2015-to-2019 quarterly average of roughly 240,000, it supported stronger apartment absorption and helped reduce national vacancy by 60 basis points to 4.5%.

Vacancy declined across most major markets. Some of the largest drops occurred in lower-supply Midwest and Northeast metros, but construction-heavy Sun Belt markets also tightened as demand began absorbing units delivered during the recent development wave. Vacancy generally remains higher in those Sun Belt markets, however.

Improving employment contributed to household formation, with employers adding 552,000 jobs during the first half of the year, the report said.

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Conditions in the for-sale market could keep more households renting for longer.

Existing-home sales increased 3.3% year over year in June, while new-home sales fell 5.6%. The median existing-home price rose only 1.8%, well below its 5.5% historical average, but elevated borrowing costs continued to limit affordability.

Rising Treasury yields have pushed mortgage rates higher and widened the affordability gap between owning and renting for the first time since the gap peaked in early 2025, Marcus & Millichap said. That difference was nearly six times its pre-pandemic level.

Prospective buyers also have less capacity to accumulate down payments. The personal saving rate fell to 2.7%, less than half its trailing 10-year average, reflecting continued pressure from elevated consumer costs. Although total household savings have increased this year, the low saving rate could slow renters’ progress toward homeownership or cause some to forgo it.

The apartment market is also benefiting from a pullback in residential construction.

Total residential completions in June were roughly 20% below their mid-2024 peak on a seasonally adjusted basis. Multifamily and single-family permitting also remained subdued, with total authorizations about 6% below the monthly average of the past decade.

The recently enacted 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act could eventually reduce approval, financing and regulatory barriers and encourage additional permitting. Marcus & Millichap cautioned that implementation will take time, however, and many constraints on residential development are controlled locally.

If apartment absorption remains near its second-quarter pace, the combination of improving demand and limited new development should produce additional vacancy compression through the end of the year, the report said.

Source: GlobeSt.