National advertised rent growth is forecast to remain modest

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U.S. multifamily performance in 2025 showed steady demand and an elevated volume of new supply. Total absorption reached 519,000 units, but leasing momentum weakened in the second half of the year, contributing to softer late-year conditions in several regions.

Expectations for 2026 point to a gradual regression to the mean rather than a sharp turn. Multifamily deliveries are projected at approximately 469,000 units—below 2025’s volume but still above the pre-pandemic norm—while national advertised rent growth is forecast to remain modest at about 1.2 percent as lease-up competition persists. Financing conditions are expected to stay comparatively supportive, with lenders and agencies positioned to remain active even as pricing discipline continues to shape transactions.

Using Yardi Matrix data, we’ve looked at metros with populations below 1 million residents that have forged their path to growth through this landscape, recording notable performance last year and pointing to sustained growth moving forward.

The data points used included employment, deliveries, construction pipeline and occupancy, as well as investment metrics. Each of these metrics was assigned a final score, which helped shape our ranking. Here are the U.S.’s top 10 emerging multifamily markets in 2026. 

Key highlights

• The Southeast dominates the 2026 ranking, accounting for five of the 10 markets; the West and Midwest/Plains each hold two and the Northeast one.
• That regional tilt shows up clearly in supply. The highest delivery intensity is concentrated in the Southeast and adjacent growth corridors, led by Savannah–Hilton Head (8.7 percent of stock) and supported by Huntsville (7.2 percent) and Augusta (5.4 percent).
• A shared demand driver is defense and military-related activity, which underpins at least half the list—most visibly Huntsville (defense/space) and Augusta (cyber/Army), with additional defense-adjacent exposure in places like Mobile (shipbuilding/industrial), Wichita (aviation manufacturing) and Spokane (regional military presence).
• The other recurring pillar is logistics and distribution, spanning both coasts: markets on the list benefit from port-linked freight and industrial demand.
• The regional mix also creates a “value vs premium” dynamic: the Midwest/Plains names skew more affordable (e.g., Tulsa at $92,650 price per unit), while the West’s standout is higher priced (Boise at $226,380, the only metro above the $206,100 national average).

Tallahassee, Fla.

As Florida’s capital and a major university market, Tallahassee leans on government and higher-ed stability, anchored by Florida State University and state employment. Employment slipped 0.2 percent year-over-year, making it one of the three markets in the group with negative job performance (Spokane and Mobile were weaker) and under the 0.2 percent national gain.

Occupancy of 93 percent following a 20-basis-point decline year-over-year placed it in the lower half of the peer set and below the 94.4 percent national rate, and just above the national 30-basis-point decline. New supply was moderate rather than aggressive: 1,486 completions were in the lower half by volume, and deliveries equaled 4.3 percent of stock, exceeding the 3.4 percent national rate. The pipeline measured 2,111 units underway, also mid-range among this dataset.

Sales activity was solid at $156 million, placing it around the middle of the group. Average pricing of $142,714 per unit similarly landed in the middle and well below the $206,100 national average, but Tallahassee had the fastest year-over-year price growth at 134.1 percent, edging out Augusta (127.7 percent) for the top spot.

Augusta, Ga.

Augusta’s economy is unique for a mid-sized metro: cyber and defense activity tied to Fort Eisenhower intersects with a large medical and education presence led by Augusta University and regional health systems. That mix showed up in the data, with employment growth of 1.3 percent year-over-year, the second-fastest among these markets, just behind Tulsa (1.4 percent) and far ahead of the 0.2 percent national rate.

Occupancy of 92.9 percent was the second lowest in the group, only Huntsville was lower, and below the 94.4 percent national figure. It also posted one of the sharpest occupancy declines, down 90 basis points year-over-year, second only to Huntsville’s 120-basis-point decline.

Supply was elevated: 1,795 completions were upper-mid-pack, and deliveries equaled 5.4 percent of stock, the fourth-highest rate behind Savannah–Hilton Head, Boise and Huntsville; the under-construction pipeline was smaller, with 1,624 units under construction, and in the lower tier.

Investment was a point of strength. Sales volume of $315 million was the second highest in the group, trailing only Savannah–Hilton Head ($436 million). Pricing averaged $163,442 per unit, in the upper tier but still under the $206,100 national average, while year-over-year price growth of 127.7 percent was the second-fastest after Tallahassee.

Tulsa, Okla.

Tulsa has positioned itself to attract new residents and remote workers. Employment growth was the fastest in this ranking at 1.4 percent year-over-year, outpacing Augusta’s 1.3 percent and far exceeding the 0.2 percent national gain.

Occupancy of 93.3 percent sat in the lower-middle of the group and below the 94.4 percent national benchmark, while occupancy fell 80 basis points year-over-year, outperforming only Huntsville and Augusta.

Supply was disciplined: deliveries equaled 2.3 percent of stock, the second-lowest rate in this group, above only Wichita (1.0 percent), even as completions of 1,746 units were mid-pack by unit volume. The pipeline of 2,319 units under construction was also a middle rank.

Sales volume totaled $170.6 million, a mid-range result. The average price per unit was the lowest and most accessible in the set: $92,650, and well below the $206,100 national average. Meanwhile, year-over-year price per unit growth of 58.2 percent ranked in the middle, trailing Mobile and outperforming Allentown-Bethlehem.

Mobile, Ala.

Mobile is shaped by its port economy and industrial base, with large-scale aerospace and shipbuilding operations. Despite this support, employment fell 0.6 percent year-over-year, the weakest performance in the group and lagging the 0.2 percent national gain.

Occupancy was 93.4 percent, a mid-pack level that still trailed the 94.4 percent national rate, but the year-over-year move was the bright spot: occupancy rose 60 basis points, the strongest improvement among these 10 markets and a clear contrast to the national 30-basis-point decline.

Supply was moderate: deliveries equaled 4.9 percent of stock, right around the middle of the group, while completions of 1,867 units were upper-mid-pack. The multifamily construction pipeline was notably light at 476 units underway, the smallest in the group and well below the next-lowest pipeline markets.

Sales volume of $267.9 million ranked in the top three, behind only Savannah–Hilton Head and Augusta. Pricing averaged $155,874 per unit—mid-pack and below the $206,100 national average—while price per unit growth of 75.3 percent was a top-tier increase, trailing only the surge markets Tallahassee, Augusta and Wichita.

Allentown–Bethlehem, Pa.

The Lehigh Valley’s pitch is straightforward: it sits in the Northeast’s distribution spine with easy access to major population centers, and that logistics advantage is complemented by other sectors. Employment grew 1.0 percent year-over-year, placing it in the top half of the group—trailing Boise, Tulsa and Augusta, and well ahead of the national 0.2 percent pace.

Occupancy reveals a tight rental market: at 96.7 percent, it was the highest among these markets and well above the 94.4 percent national rate. It also improved 40 basis points year-over-year, the second-best gain behind Mobile, while the national rate slipped 30 basis points.

Supply pressure looked manageable: deliveries equaled 3.1 percent of stock, in the lower half of the group (lighter than most Sun Belt peers), while completions of 1,133 units were also in the lower tier by volume; the pipeline, however, remained meaningful at 2,702 units under construction, among the larger counts in this set.

Sales volume of $144.3 million was mid-pack. The average price per unit stood at $119,981 in December, among the lowest in the group and well below the $206,100 national average. Meanwhile, per-unit price growth of 41.7 percent year-over-year landed in the middle, but still well above the 5.2 percent national increase.

Wichita, Kan.

Wichita remains one of the country’s most aviation-centric economies, showcasing the importance of this anchor. Employment was flat year-over-year, placing it in the lower middle of this ranking and slightly behind the 0.2 percent national gain.

Occupancy stood at 93.9 percent in December, which translates into a mid-ranking position in this group, and just under the 94.4 percent national rate. The rate improved 20 basis points year-over-year, the third-best performance after Mobile and Allentown–Bethlehem.

Supply was the clearest differentiator: deliveries equaled just 392 units, or 1 percent of stock, the lowest rate and the smallest delivery volume in the group. Yet, even with a light recent delivery profile, the pipeline measured 1,930 units under construction, a mid-range figure.

Wichita logged the lowest sales volume at $33.9 million. Average pricing of $141,391 per unit was mid-pack and below the $206,100 national benchmark, while price per unit growth of 117.2 percent was the third-fastest jump in the group, trailing only Tallahassee and Augusta.

Boise, Idaho

Boise’s demand drivers skew toward growth industries—semiconductors, tech-adjacent services and corporate operations—reinforced by a tight labor market. Employment rose 1.1 percent year-over-year, the third-fastest pace in this group, behind Tulsa and Augusta, and well above the 0.2 percent national rate.

Occupancy was steady at 94.8 percent, the second-highest rate among these markets after Allentown–Bethlehem, and modestly above the 94.4 percent national level. Still, occupancy eased 50 basis points year-over-year, a weaker trend than the national and similar to Savannah–Hilton Head’s drop.

Supply is a key part of the Boise story: deliveries equaled 8.1 percent of stock, the second-highest rate behind Savannah–Hilton Head (8.7 percent), and completions of 2,801 units were the third-largest volume in the group. The pipeline remained active at 2,969 units under construction, which ranked in the upper tier.

Sales volume was on the lighter side at $68.4 million, near the bottom of the list. Pricing, however, was the premium metric: at $226,380 per unit, it was the highest in this group and above the $206,100 national average, even as price per unit growth of 21.9 percent was among the slowest increases in the set, albeit still ahead of the 5.2 percent national gain, but behind most peers.

Savannah–Hilton Head, Ga.

Savannah–Hilton Head is a logistics-and-manufacturing market—built around one of the nation’s busiest ports and supported by aerospace and a solid hospitality sector. Employment rose 0.6 percent year-over-year, a middle rate in this group, but still ahead of the 0.2 percent national average.

Occupancy registered 93.5 percent, essentially mid-pack and below the 94.4 percent national rate, while occupancy fell 50 basis points year-over-year—matching Boise for one of the softer trends and underperforming the national 30-basis-point decline.

Supply, though, is surging: completions of 5,088 units were the largest volume in the group, and deliveries equaled 8.7 percent of stock, also the highest rate. The development pipeline was similarly dominant at 6,050 units under construction, the heaviest among the 10 markets.

Multifamily transactions were equally notable. Sales volume of $436.1 million was the highest in the group, and pricing averaged $193,403 per unit, the second-highest per-unit average after Boise, though still under the $206,100 national average. The trade-off was price momentum: the average price per unit rose by only 2.9 percent, the slowest in the peer set and below the 5.2 percent national increase.

Spokane, Wash.

Spokane’s employment base leans heavily on healthcare, education and public-sector stability. Employment declined 0.4 percent year-over-year, placing it in the bottom three of this group and below the 0.2 percent national gain.

Occupancy held up comparatively well at 94.6 percent, the third-highest rate in the ranking (behind Allentown–Bethlehem and Boise) and slightly above the 94.4 percent national level. The year-over-year performance marked a 30-basis-point decline—roughly in line with the national move and slightly steadier than the other western market in the group.

Supply looked moderate: deliveries equaled 2.7 percent of stock, in the lower tier (lighter than most peers aside from Wichita and Tulsa), while completions of 1,189 units were also on the lower end. The pipeline, however, was sizeable at 4,423 units under construction, the third-largest volume, behind Savannah–Hilton Head and Huntsville.

Investment volume of $108.4 million was in the lower half of the group. Pricing averaged $186,652 per unit, the third-highest in the set (behind Boise and Savannah–Hilton Head), yet still below the $206,100 national average, while the 22.8 percent increase in the average price per unit was a lower-half gain, exceeding the 5.2 percent national increase but trailing most peers.

Working with Yardi Matrix data, we first filtered out metros with populations of 1 million or more. We then selected a set of metrics designed to differentiate top performers: year-over-year change in average price per unit for transactions closed in 2025 through December; year-over-year employment growth; occupancy level as of December and the year-over-year change; total units delivered in 2025; and units under construction as of December 2025. Markets were evaluated across each measure, and the results were combined into a composite score that produced our final ranking.

Source: Multi-Housing News